# THE BAKER: Credible Budget Model

**Date:** 2026-05-07  
**Use:** Working finance model for Cannes packaging conversations.  
**Status:** Strategic model, not a production accountant budget.  
**Primary sources:** call transcript, Ronny WhatsApp Producer Offset recording, screenplay scale, current repo notes.  

## 1. Executive position

The working budget should be treated as a range, not a fixed number.

The previous AUD 15M reference should remain a ceiling until a revised schedule, QAPE model, cast plan, and co-production structure exist. The call changed the posture. Ronny said the earlier number came from an older, larger script and can come down. Aya also said the film feels reducible without losing value.

The credible Cannes position is:

> The current package is being budgeted against three models: a lean market case, a target financeable case, and a stretch cast-driven case. Each model is built around Australian QAPE, the Producer Offset, state support, France, regional equity or services, presales, and private equity.

## 2. Modelling assumptions

These assumptions need verification.

| Item | Working assumption | Verification needed |
|---|---:|---|
| Currency | AUD | Confirm all producer materials use AUD before conversion. |
| Producer Offset rate | 40% of QAPE | Confirm with Australian production accountant and Screen Australia. |
| Cashflowable portion | 88% to 92% of expected offset | Confirm lender appetite, interest, fees, completion bond requirements. |
| Main production base | Australia, likely NSW | Confirm schedule and location breakdown. |
| Regional shoot | Lebanon or alternative regional location | Confirm feasibility, security, services, and cost. |
| Co-production lane | France as priority | Confirm treaty mechanics and partner appetite. |
| State support | Screen NSW or local production incentives | Confirm eligibility and timing. |
| MENA contribution | Cast-driven equity, services, commission support, or presale | Confirm partner appetite and distribution logic. |

## 3. Budget cases

### Case A: Lean market case

**Total budget:** AUD 8.5M  
**Purpose:** prove the film can exist at a disciplined level if sales, cast, and regional money stay moderate.  
**Use in meetings:** credibility floor.

| Component | Working amount |
|---|---:|
| Total budget | AUD 8.5M |
| Estimated QAPE | AUD 6.5M |
| Expected Producer Offset at 40% | AUD 2.6M |
| Estimated cashflowable offset | AUD 2.35M |
| Non-QAPE or regional spend | AUD 2.0M |

Indicative finance stack:

| Source | Working amount | Notes |
|---|---:|---|
| Producer Offset cashflow | AUD 2.35M | Against estimated AUD 2.6M offset. |
| Screen NSW or local support | AUD 0.40M | Requires local spend and cultural/economic argument. |
| France co-production or public funds | AUD 1.10M | Requires partner and treaty analysis. |
| MENA equity, services, or presale | AUD 0.75M | Cast-driven and territory-driven. |
| Private equity, Australia or diaspora | AUD 2.20M | Core equity requirement. |
| Presales or gap | AUD 1.30M | Requires sales agent estimates. |
| Producer deferrals or in-kind support | AUD 0.40M | Only if accepted by completion structure. |
| **Total** | **AUD 8.50M** |  |

What this version implies:

- contained execution
- disciplined shoot days
- Australian base protected
- Lebanon component controlled or partly substituted
- limited premium cast spend
- stronger reliance on script and ensemble than star package

### Case B: Target financeable case

**Total budget:** AUD 10.5M  
**Purpose:** preserve scale, international locations, cast value, and production quality while keeping the finance ask believable.  
**Use in meetings:** recommended primary target until revised schedule arrives.

| Component | Working amount |
|---|---:|
| Total budget | AUD 10.5M |
| Estimated QAPE | AUD 8.0M |
| Expected Producer Offset at 40% | AUD 3.2M |
| Estimated cashflowable offset | AUD 2.9M |
| Non-QAPE or regional spend | AUD 2.5M |

Indicative finance stack:

| Source | Working amount | Notes |
|---|---:|---|
| Producer Offset cashflow | AUD 2.90M | Main anchor. |
| Screen NSW or local support | AUD 0.60M | Local production and cultural value lane. |
| France co-production or public funds | AUD 1.60M | Priority Cannes partner lane. |
| MENA equity, services, or presale | AUD 1.20M | Requires visible cast and regional partner. |
| Private equity, Australia or diaspora | AUD 2.30M | Needs business case and package confidence. |
| Presales or gap | AUD 1.50M | Requires sales estimates and cast attachments. |
| Producer deferrals or in-kind support | AUD 0.40M | Optional pressure valve. |
| **Total** | **AUD 10.50M** |  |

What this version implies:

- enough scale for Australian estate, church, nightclub, Lebanon, action, and ensemble
- credible use of Daniela-level regional cast value
- viable France conversation
- defensible gap if sales estimates support it
- manageable equity ask if offset, state, and co-production are credible

### Case C: Stretch cast-driven case

**Total budget:** AUD 12.5M  
**Purpose:** allow stronger cast, wider production scope, and higher international sales ambition.  
**Use in meetings:** only viable with major cast, confirmed co-production, and sales validation.

| Component | Working amount |
|---|---:|
| Total budget | AUD 12.5M |
| Estimated QAPE | AUD 9.7M |
| Expected Producer Offset at 40% | AUD 3.88M |
| Estimated cashflowable offset | AUD 3.5M |
| Non-QAPE or regional spend | AUD 2.8M |

Indicative finance stack:

| Source | Working amount | Notes |
|---|---:|---|
| Producer Offset cashflow | AUD 3.50M | Requires strong QAPE certainty. |
| Screen NSW or local support | AUD 0.75M | Needs larger local spend and jobs case. |
| France co-production or public funds | AUD 2.20M | Requires serious French partner. |
| MENA equity, services, or presale | AUD 1.60M | Requires cast with regional traffic. |
| Private equity, Australia or diaspora | AUD 2.50M | Requires cast and strong investor story. |
| Presales or gap | AUD 1.55M | Requires sales agent, cast, and credible estimates. |
| Producer deferrals or in-kind support | AUD 0.40M | Optional pressure valve. |
| **Total** | **AUD 12.50M** |  |

What this version implies:

- Tony-level or equivalent prestige cast logic
- stronger Magda and Aida casting leverage
- high Cannes confidence
- France partner in place
- regional partner with finance or services
- sales agent support before locking budget

### Legacy ceiling: AUD 15M

The AUD 15M reference should remain a ceiling and negotiation marker.

A 15M version likely requires:

- major cast attachment
- French co-producer with meaningful financing
- strong Australian QAPE and state support
- MENA equity or services above AUD 2M
- credible presales or gap facility
- clear lender appetite
- revised schedule that explains where scale appears on screen

Meeting posture:

> The team is revising from the current AUD 15M reference into a financeable budget range, with the target model likely to sit between AUD 9M and AUD 12.5M depending on cast, QAPE, co-production, and sales validation.

## 4. Budget credibility test

Every budget case should pass these tests.

| Test | Question | Required proof |
|---|---|---|
| Screenplay scale | Does the number support the estate, church, nightclub, Lebanon, violence, ensemble, and cemetery? | Revised schedule and line budget. |
| Australian incentive | How much is QAPE? | QAPE memo and Screen Australia pathway. |
| Cashflow | Who lends against the offset? | Lender indication, likely Fulcrum or equivalent. |
| Co-production | What does France bring? | Partner interest and treaty analysis. |
| MENA | What money arrives and why? | Cast, territory logic, distributor or financier feedback. |
| Sales | What can be presold? | Sales estimates by territory. |
| Equity | What remains uncovered? | Recoupment waterfall and investor case. |
| Cast | Which actor moves which money? | Cast-finance matrix. |

## 5. Recommended Cannes finance language

Use this externally:

> The project is being budgeted against a revised screenplay and an Australian-led finance structure. The package is being built around the Producer Offset, currently expected at 40% of qualifying Australian production expenditure, with Screen Australia certification, QAPE modelling, state support, France co-production options, and regional cast-driven financing under active review.

Use this in direct finance conversations:

> We are modelling three cases: AUD 8.5M, AUD 10.5M, and AUD 12.5M. The target case is AUD 10.5M, subject to schedule, QAPE, cast, and partner validation. The former AUD 15M figure is treated as a ceiling until the revised budget is complete.

## 6. Immediate data request to Ronny and Tracey

Request the following before locking any numbers:

1. current budget
2. current schedule
3. older budget used for the AUD 15M figure
4. Australia versus Lebanon spend split
5. assumed shoot days
6. assumed cast fees
7. assumed post production location
8. production accountant contact
9. Screen Australia adviser or prior offset contact
10. Screen NSW contact or prior advice
11. QAPE estimate if one exists
12. completion bond assumption
13. cashflow lender contact, including Fulcrum if available
14. cast approach status and fee assumptions
15. co-production assumptions, especially France

## 7. Current conclusion

The credible target is not a single budget yet. It is a defended range.

The best current working range is:

> AUD 8.5M to AUD 12.5M, with AUD 10.5M as the first financeable target model.

The AUD 10.5M target protects scale while keeping the equity, gap, and regional money requirements within a believable Cannes conversation.