# THE BAKER: Cannes Finance Memo

**Date:** 2026-05-07  
**Use:** One-page working finance memo for Cannes conversations.  
**Status:** Strategic model pending producer, accountant, sales, and incentive verification.

## Finance position

THE BAKER is being structured as an Australian-led international feature built around the Producer Offset, state support, France co-production potential, regional cast-driven finance, presales, gap, and private equity.

The previous AUD 15M reference is being treated as a ceiling while the team revises the budget against the current screenplay, schedule, cast plan, QAPE model, and co-production structure.

## Working budget range

| Case | Total budget | Estimated QAPE | Producer Offset at 40% | Cashflowable estimate | Use |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Lean market case | AUD 8.5M | AUD 6.5M | AUD 2.6M | AUD 2.35M | Credibility floor |
| Target financeable case | AUD 10.5M | AUD 8.0M | AUD 3.2M | AUD 2.9M | Primary Cannes target |
| Stretch cast-driven case | AUD 12.5M | AUD 9.7M | AUD 3.88M | AUD 3.5M | Stronger cast and partner package |

Recommended current posture:

> The first financeable target is AUD 10.5M, with movement up or down driven by cast, QAPE, France, state support, MENA value, and sales validation.

## Target case finance stack

| Source | Working amount | Function |
|---|---:|---|
| Producer Offset cashflow | AUD 2.9M | Main Australian finance anchor |
| Screen NSW or local support | AUD 0.6M | Local production and cultural value lane |
| France co-production or public funds | AUD 1.6M | European structure, Cannes credibility, partner value |
| MENA equity, services, or presale | AUD 1.2M | Cast-driven regional value |
| Private equity, Australia or diaspora | AUD 2.3M | Core equity requirement |
| Presales or gap | AUD 1.5M | Sales-driven finance support |
| Producer deferrals or in-kind support | AUD 0.4M | Pressure valve if accepted by completion structure |
| **Total** | **AUD 10.5M** |  |

## Incentive mechanism

The project is being structured to qualify for the Australian Producer Offset, currently expected to return 40% of qualifying Australian production expenditure, subject to QAPE modelling, Screen Australia certification, and final production structure.

The offset can be cashflowed by specialist lenders. Ronny's WhatsApp recording named Fulcrum Media Finance as one possible Australian cashflow lender. The production should pursue Screen Australia certification up front and in principle.

## Co-production and state lanes

France is a priority co-production lane because Australia has an official co-production treaty with France. A French partner may strengthen financing, sales credibility, and the official structure.

Screen NSW should be treated as a separate lane because the screenplay is anchored in Sydney and Western Sydney Lebanese Australian life.

## Australian Offset model

The finance conversation should start with QAPE. Cannes is a pitch and pressure-test moment, not a confirmation stage.

Target model:

| Item | Amount |
|---|---:|
| Total target budget | AUD 10.5M |
| Estimated QAPE | AUD 8.0M |
| Producer Offset at 40% | AUD 3.2M |
| Estimated cashflow at 90% | AUD 2.88M |
| Gross cash still needed after offset cashflow | AUD 7.62M |

Sensitivity:

> Every AUD 1.0M moved into QAPE creates AUD 400K of offset value and approximately AUD 360K of cashflow value at a 90% advance rate.

Cannes pressure-test target:

> Pressure-test AUD 8.0M QAPE in the AUD 10.5M model, then ask whether the structure can move toward AUD 9.0M or AUD 10.0M QAPE without damaging the screenplay.

## Cannes finance asks by counterparty

### Australian producer, production accountant, or incentive adviser

- Pressure-test AUD 8.0M QAPE in the AUD 10.5M target planning case.
- Model Screen Australia, Screen NSW, completion, and cashflow assumptions.
- Identify what documents are needed for a serious follow-up.

### French co-producer

- Explore whether France improves the co-production structure, financing range, sales confidence, and European credibility.
- Test how France affects QAPE and Australian qualification.

### MENA partner

- Explore MENA equity, services, presale, film commission, distribution, and cast value.
- Identify which attachments and territories make participation credible.

### Sales agent or distributor

- Test which cast and budget case can be defended territory by territory.
- Identify what numbers are plausible before setting a final budget target.

### Cast representative

- Test whether the role, director, package, and finance path justify reading, availability, and fee conversations.

## Immediate data needed

- revised schedule
- current line budget
- Australia versus Lebanon or regional spend split
- QAPE estimate
- cast fee assumptions
- Screen Australia adviser or accountant
- Screen NSW contact
- cashflow lender contact
- France co-production assumptions
- preliminary sales estimates by territory